Looking at the stats, Which horse ticks enough boxes to get your cash this weekend?
The Turnbull Stakes is one of the most prestigious races in the Australian racing calendar, and it is a key lead-up race to the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup. The race is run over 2000m at Flemington Racecourse, and it attracts some of the best horses in the country.
When trying to pick the winner of the Turnbull Stakes, there are a few key factors to consider.
Age
All of the last 10 winners of the Turnbull Stakes have been aged between 4 and 6 years old. This suggests that horses at this stage of their careers are at their peak, and they have the experience to handle a tough race.
Sex
Geldings have been the most successful horses in the Turnbull Stakes in recent years, with 7 of the last 10 winners being geldings. However, mares have also won the race, so it is important not to rule out any horses based on their sex.
Weight
The average weight carried by the winners of the Turnbull Stakes in the last 10 years is 57.7kg. However, there has been a range of weights carried by the winners, so it is important to consider the individual horse’s weight-carrying ability.
Distance
It is important to look for horses that have a good record over 2000m or more. Six of the last 10 winners of the Turnbull Stakes had won a race over 2000m or more before the race.
Form
The Turnbull Stakes is a tough race, so it is important to look for horses that are in good form. Eight of the last 10 winners of the race had finished in the top 3 in their previous race.
Trainers and jockeys
Some trainers and jockeys have a better record in the Turnbull Stakes than others. Four trainers have won the race twice in the last 10 years: Chris Waller, Danny O’Brien, David Hayes and Tom Dabernig, and Darren Weir. Three jockeys have won the race twice in the last 10 years: Craig Williams, Damian Lane, and Mark Zahra.
Favourites and international horses
Favourites have a good record in the Turnbull Stakes, with 5 of the last 10 winners being the favourite. International horses have also been successful in the race, with 3 international horses winning the race in the last 10 years.
Lead-up races
The most common lead-up race to the Turnbull Stakes is the Group 1 Underwood Stakes, with 4 winners coming from that race in the last 10 years. Other lead-up races that can be worth considering include the Group 1 Memsie Stakes and the Group 1 Might and Power Stakes.
Conclusion
The race favourite, Romantic Warrior, is currently $2.05 and ticks every box. However, carrying 59kg could be a concern for some. Also a worry is the fact the Hong Kong import lost last time out at $1.20 and went under as an odds-on fav two starts ago as well. The horse is not bullet proof, but rightly has the weight of expectation.
Watch out for Osipenko, who could run a race at nice odds off the back of a 3rd in the Makybe Diva three weeks ago and could be set to peak over 2,000m.
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Note: some stats and content were created using AI technology.
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