Boom Best
Adelaide +19.5 v Collingwood ($1.87)
If there is one angle in the AFL worth following relentlessly it is taking on Collingwood when they are heavily favoured, particularly at the MCG. The Pies cover at just 41% when favoured and just 38% when favoured by more than two goals. When favoured by more than two goals at the MCG, the Pies cover at just 34%. Adelaide are clear value.
Boom-o-meter: 85%
Boom Total
Under 173.5 Essendon-Brisbane ($1.89)
The Bombers go under at a clip of 60% when an underdog at Marvel Stadium, the under hitting in eight of the last nine instances. The under has also hit in the last three Bombers-Lions clashes away from the Gabba while it has hit in 8 of 11 overall. Both teams were held to 80 or fewer in Round 1 and scoring looks an issue for both outfits.
Boom-o-meter: 70%
Boom Value
Melbourne 40+ v Gold Coast ($3.00)
The Dees dominated the Bulldogs in Round 1 winning by 26 and get a much easier affair hosting the Suns this week. Melbourne have covered 10 of 12 against Gold Coast with four of the last six being wins of 35-plus. They won by 98 when the teams met last time out. The Dees at the big margin is the play.
Boom-o-meter: 65%
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