Last (official) Week: My distrust of Yulong horses continued with Yulong Command failing whilst Rose Quartz kept us afloat. There were no official tips issued for Boxing day although if you’re following me on Twitter you’ll have seen Jezoulenko get us a profitable day.
Best Bet: Kin – Flemington R1 #1 – $2.60
The fact I regularly pick one in race 1 isn’t because I’m too lazy to go past the early races, honest…
This is a small field with only Kin and stablemate Va Via having had a run (in the same race where they finished 2nd and 3rd) 3 weeks ago at Flemington. Kin settled 3L back but is likely to go forward this time although speed maps are tough to trust with so many unraced entrants. The 2yo Godolphin filly finished within 0.2L of Stupendo (yet to race again) and I’ll glady snap up the price based on the previous run hnace of the prie disappearing.
Next Best: Herman Hesse – Randwick R3 #1 – $2.90
Back to the well here after two seconds in a row. Out of Frankel, this gelding has won in the UK over as much as 2800m so the distance should be favourable. The main concern comes from it failing to win recently. Down from a second in a listed race back to a BM78 this is almost a must win if they have any hope for the Steppenwolf namesake to move on to a better class of racing in the autumn and beyond.
Next Next Best: Dragonstone – Randwick R7 #4 – $2.30
Back down to 1000m, the Newnham trained 3yo won at this class and distance before a second over 1100m. De Grawin and Leo both look massive unders to me and that leaves plenty of fat in the price for Dragonstone and therefore I have to back it.
Worth a mention: Lighthouse – Flemington R8 #9 – $2.30
I have made this my best the last two times and has been quite progressive building off her American career. Moving up to a listed race, can she make it 4 in a row? Part of me thinks the quote is a little on the light side, but I am struggling to see the winner unless Crosshaven finds something at a decent price. I can’t not back it after being firmly in the corner the last two though. Perhaps a Lighthouse/Crosshaven Quinella and then I’ll watch Yulong January come through and break my heart.
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