Last Week: Lighthouse got us home again with a strong win. Guardian Spirit was in 4th with 400 to go but had absolutely no luck. It faded to finish 6th but with a clear run would have gone closer.
Best Bet: Yulong Command – Flemington R9 #2 – $3.25
I can’t believe I am doing this. I am on the record expressing my inability to pick Yulong runners in the past, but I cannot look past this one. A third behind Enthaar at Caulfield n a listed race last time out followed a win at Moonee Valley in a BM78 and the Freedman trained Gelding will be looking for win number five from 16 runs. The inside barrier is a potential issue, but the 2KG claim will help with early speed and it is Winsum who is the obvious competitor with them very closely matched in the odds with some books. The Caulfield race was a stronger affair and the good win at MV in the previous race proves it was no fluke.
This price is sure to shorten in my book, so I have to grab it early before it gets backed in.
Next Best 1: Honeycreeper – Flemington R1 #4 – $4.10
This six-start filly from Godolphin coming back to the races on the back of a successful having not raced since a 3rd at Randwick in July. This is a wide open race and the BM70 represents a step up in class. If you back this one, you know it is one of at least three pretty even chances but Luna Cat looks like it could catch a slight drift leaving Lavish Girl as the other chance. I’ll be backing the Godolphin based on the price alone as it seems to be the one with the most generous price.
Next Best 2: Rose Quartz – Flemington R4 #7 – $4.40
Fresh off a win at Geelong in a BM64 Rose Quartz moves to a BM70 and over a slightly longer distance, up to 1200. Whilst the field was not overly strong in that win, the way she worked to hit the line and get a narrow win as $2.60 favourite was promising and the fact she was still hitting stride at the end should mean the extra 60m is irrelevant. Like Honeycreeper this is a bet based on the price and the 2nd fav, Enigma could drift back closer to the opening quote after being backed in from around $7 when markets went up.
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