Last Week: Brereton disappointed last week. Unfortunately the debutant Ebhaar was too good down the straight whilst Brereton found absolutely nothing! Spanish Mission I said was too short, and it got shorter… but then lost, which it is fair to say took most of the punters around the country by suprise!
Best Bet: Unflinching – Pakenham R4 #3 – $3.35
I backed this Freedman colt two weeks ago at Moonee Valley as it made it two wins in a row in a comfortable 1.5L win over Translation, who goes round at approx $9.50 in this race. It comes up against Marine One as the most obvious challenger who has had a very different prep, managing to get a start in the G1 Coolmore ($61) where he finished a distant 11th albeit ahead of class runners like Paulele and Kallos.
I just think the scope that Unflinching has after impressive wins in the first two runs of his career provide plenty of upside and there is no way I could let the price go without a bit of my hard-earned.
Next Best: Maybe The Best – Pakenham R2 #6 – $3.25
The freedman trained runner has had six runs now without finishing outside the top two, although finding one better on four of those occasions is a little frustrating. She has run on Heavy, soft and good tracks and proved competitive at all, but the move up in class to BM78 could be a challenge although a recent second place at Mornington has seen seven subsequent winners from the race. At the price, it looks a very fair favourite, and I will not be at all surprised to see the quote trim up a little more on race day.
Pakenham Cup: Mankayan #6 – $4.50
This is not an easy race for me to pick one, and to be honest, Smokin Romans and Mankayan were very evenly matched in my mind. I have them both rated almost the same chance and would have expected both to be around $3.50 in the market so with Mankayan offering up a juicier price, I have to snap it up.
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